Abstract
The energy transition is often framed as a linear decarbonization pathway driven by technological change and carbon reduction. However, its systemic risk architecture remains insufficiently understood. While existing studies document spillovers between energy markets, freight markets, and uncertainty indicators, no study examines regime-dependent shock center shifts between logistics markets and policy uncertainty during the energy transition. Addressing this gap, this study reconceptualizes the transition as a regime-dependent network process in which shock transmission is asymmetric and structurally reconfiguring. To capture this dynamic structure, we develop a component-based external connectedness framework that combines sign-based shock decomposition with a time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model. Using daily data from 2009 to 2025, we analyze interactions among maritime transport markets, climate risk indicators, and trade policy uncertainty. The findings reveal a structural divergence between shock production centers and vulnerability surfaces. During periods of rising uncertainty, trade policy uncertainty emerges as the dominant shock production center, while maritime transport markets particularly tanker and dry bulk freight segments function as vulnerability surfaces where shocks accumulate and propagate through freight prices. In lower-uncertainty regimes, logistics markets regain a coordinating role within the system. Overall, the study introduces the concept of regime-dependent shock center shift, showing that energy transition operates as a nonlinear restructuring of global logistics and uncertainty networks rather than a smooth decarbonization pathway.
-
Kapsamı
Uluslararası
-
Type
Hakemli
-
Index info
WOS.ESCI
-
Language
English
-
Article Type
None
-
Keywords
Energy transition Systemic risk Maritime transport markets